Friday, January 6, 2012

2011 Team Effective Shooting Percentage


This Summer NLL Blogger Dan Shirley came up with a new advanced stat for shooting percentage in lacrosse. Regular shooting percentage is simple: You take the number of goals divided by the number of shots taken, a 1 to 1 ratio being 100%. Dan saw a problem with this and it's that not all shots are worth the same. There is a difference between a shot that ends up in the corner, and one that that hits the crossbar.

His way to filter out the idea that all shots are worth the same is called Effective Shooting Percentage (eS%).

eS%=(Goals/Shots)(1-((Goals- Shots on Goal)/Shots))

Using this formula, we can see how efficient last years teams (except for Boston) were at shooting:
eS%
Minnesota
0.329%
Washington
0.291%
Rochester
0.289%
Calgary
0.280%
Toronto
0.276%
Buffalo
0.253%
Edmonton
0.251%
Philadelphia
0.226%
Colorado
0.226%

The teams near the top could still have a good chance at winning even with a lesser amount of shots, while lower teams would need to shoot more to score the same amount. 

The chart above will have nothing to do with this years squads as there have been many offseason transactions, but you will be seeing this format in the future as we look at teams and players as the 2012 season moves along. (Hint: Colorado's probably going to stay at the bottom)

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