Thursday, March 27, 2014

Spreadsheet Fun: Looking At The Leagues Best and Worst Shooters

Looking at a team's or player's shooting percentage tells you a lot, but not what most may think. As much as one's skill can influence their S%, luck can influence it greatly in a short sample size, so its hard to judge players with little experience by this stat. Looking at shooting percentage also factors in goal-tending numbers, complicating things further and adding even more luck into the equation. There are only so many goals in a season, but there are a lot of shots, allowing us to use those to get better data. Because any shot on goal could end up as a goal, it allows shots to be used to grade a shooter. We just have to look at the percentage of the player's or team's shots that actually hit the net. If a team has a pile of shot attempts, but doesn't hit the net, they won't do much good.

TEAM                  G                    S            SOG             SOFF        OnNet%
Edmonton Rush 134 740 562 178 75.95%
Calgary Roughnecks 154 781 578 203 74.01%
Toronto Rock 161 932 687 245 73.71%
Rochester Knighthawks 138 744 545 199 73.25%
Minnesota Swarm 118 851 623 228 73.21%
Vancouver Stealth 129 766 556 210 72.58%
Buffalo Bandits 133 789 570 219 72.24%
Philadelphia Wings 143 906 651 255 71.85%
Colorado Mammoth 137 857 607 250 70.83%

The chart above shows OnNet% for each team, evaluated by dividing the number of shots on goal by the team's total shots. It isn't very surprising to see Edmonton at the top of the list, as they have been a the top of the standings all year. The only real outlier is the Buffalo Bandits, who have been the teams luckiest team this year, getting great goaltending from Anthony Cosmo.

Saturday, March 15, 2014

10-0 Meets 0-10

by Avry Lewis-McDougall

The Edmonton Rush are re-writing the NLL record books with every new win. The now 10-0 club has a start that may not be matched for a long time to come.

With this type of history being made Mr. Mike Wilson and myself once asked, what's the complete opposite of a start like this? Many moons ago I touched on them briefly in an article for the blog, but the team that would be the anti 2014 Rush,would have to be the 1996 Charlotte Cobras.

0-10. That was how Charlotte finished their only season in the MILL. They were all kinds of awful and reached depths so low that I don't think any other team in the NLL could ever reach even if they tried.

Just how bad were the Cobras? Well let me show you some numbers....

-They scored only 85 goals, while giving up 186. Meaning that they on average lost by about 10 goals a game. No other team in the MILL that year scored less than 125 or even came close to allowing 180 goals.

-Pat McCready who would go on to a have a long and very successful MILL/NLL career led the team in scoring as a rookie. How many points did he have? 25. That's not a joke. No other player on the team would get to 20 points.

-Charlotte gave up 20 or more goals 4 times in a game, with the worst example being a 28-6 loss to the Buffalo Bandits.

-Speaking of Buffalo, John Tavares in 1996 had 81 points, his assist totals alone would have led the Cobras in scoring (40 assists).

Looking at these stats it wouldn't have shocked me if they found a way to have played inter-squad games where both teams lost.

There was one claim to fame that was not entirely negative, the Cobras once held the distinction of being the southermost franchise in league history (a mark now held by the now defunct Orlando Titans).

Without a doubt the Cobras were the furthest thing from this year's Rush, although maybe the NLL just for fun should hold an exhibition game between the two sqauds to see what the score would be.

My guess? 25-3 Edmonton. At halftime. The Rexall Place scoreboard would not be able to handle what the final score may be.

Sunday, March 9, 2014

The Edmonton Rush are 9-0 and it's spectacular

 By Avry Lewis-McDougall

Last night we saw the Edmonton Rush make NLL history by starting a season at
9-0 with their 10-9 win over the Vancouver Stealth.

It's a great time to be a fan of this club as they are truly the top dogs in the league.

I also decided to truly express myself and chew the fat on it via YouTube.