Thursday, March 27, 2014

Spreadsheet Fun: Looking At The Leagues Best and Worst Shooters

Looking at a team's or player's shooting percentage tells you a lot, but not what most may think. As much as one's skill can influence their S%, luck can influence it greatly in a short sample size, so its hard to judge players with little experience by this stat. Looking at shooting percentage also factors in goal-tending numbers, complicating things further and adding even more luck into the equation. There are only so many goals in a season, but there are a lot of shots, allowing us to use those to get better data. Because any shot on goal could end up as a goal, it allows shots to be used to grade a shooter. We just have to look at the percentage of the player's or team's shots that actually hit the net. If a team has a pile of shot attempts, but doesn't hit the net, they won't do much good.

TEAM                  G                    S            SOG             SOFF        OnNet%
Edmonton Rush 134 740 562 178 75.95%
Calgary Roughnecks 154 781 578 203 74.01%
Toronto Rock 161 932 687 245 73.71%
Rochester Knighthawks 138 744 545 199 73.25%
Minnesota Swarm 118 851 623 228 73.21%
Vancouver Stealth 129 766 556 210 72.58%
Buffalo Bandits 133 789 570 219 72.24%
Philadelphia Wings 143 906 651 255 71.85%
Colorado Mammoth 137 857 607 250 70.83%


The chart above shows OnNet% for each team, evaluated by dividing the number of shots on goal by the team's total shots. It isn't very surprising to see Edmonton at the top of the list, as they have been a the top of the standings all year. The only real outlier is the Buffalo Bandits, who have been the teams luckiest team this year, getting great goaltending from Anthony Cosmo.


The list below shows the OnNet% of  60 players who took the most shots as of March 24th.

NAME                   G                  S             SOG             SOFF        OnNet%
Scott Jones 5 49 42 7 85.71%
Robert Church 11 78 66 12 84.62%
Josh Sanderson 17 92 75 17 81.52%
Tracey Kelusky 19 91 73 18 80.22%
Kasey Beirnes 18 90 72 18 80.00%
Shawn Williams 9 65 52 13 80.00%
Aaron Wilson 6 39 31 8 79.49%
Cody Bremner 7 66 52 14 78.79%
Curtis Knight 22 98 77 21 78.57%
Jeff Shattler 24 124 97 27 78.23%
Curtis Dickson 29 136 106 30 77.94%
Brett Bucktooth 12 40 31 9 77.50%
Joe Walters 14 78 60 18 76.92%
Ryan Ward 12 94 72 22 76.60%
Logan Schuss 21 135 103 32 76.30%
Stephan Leblanc 30 172 131 41 76.16%
Joel McCready 12 46 35 11 76.09%
Adam Jones 25 100 76 24 76.00%
Rhys Duch 26 141 107 34 75.89%
Shayne Jackson 8 102 77 25 75.49%
Jarrett Davis 10 57 43 14 75.44%
Cory Conway 13 52 39 13 75.00%
Callum Crawford 17 135 101 34 74.81%
Tyler Digby 18 101 75 26 74.26%
Johnny Powless 13 92 68 24 73.91%
Drew Westervelt 24 126 93 33 73.81%
Kiel Matisz 15 91 67 24 73.63%
Garrett Thul 13 87 64 23 73.56%
Stephen Keogh 21 102 75 27 73.53%
Dane Dobbie 35 151 111 40 73.51%
Geoff Snider 12 41 30 11 73.17%
Kyle Buchanan 18 107 78 29 72.90%
Kevin Ross 6 51 37 14 72.55%
Mark Matthews 20 156 113 43 72.44%
Cory Vitarelli 12 64 46 18 71.88%
Casey Powell 8 59 42 17 71.19%
Daryl Veltman 13 77 54 23 70.13%
Zack Greer 18 120 84 36 70.00%
John Tavares 19 100 70 30 70.00%
Dhane Smith 13 106 74 32 69.81%
Colin Doyle 25 144 100 44 69.44%
Garrett Billings 29 189 131 58 69.31%
Cliff Smith 14 65 45 20 69.23%
John Grant Jr. 28 204 141 63 69.12%
Riley Loewen 11 55 38 17 69.09%
Sean Pollock 17 96 66 30 68.75%
Cody Jamieson 28 143 98 45 68.53%
Lewis Ratcliff 15 127 87 40 68.50%
Joe Resetarits 16 92 63 29 68.48%
Kevin Crowley 25 177 121 56 68.36%
Rob Hellyer 20 120 82 38 68.33%
Ryan Benesch 16 115 78 37 67.83%
Shawn Evans 12 130 88 42 67.69%
Jordan MacIntosh 18 104 70 34 67.31%
Mark Steenhuis 23 121 81 40 66.94%
Pat Saunders 15 92 61 31 66.30%
Josh Gillam 7 77 51 26 66.23%
Jordan Hall 24 104 67 37 64.42%
Joel Dalgarno 8 59 38 21 64.41%

The players near the top of the list have the best chance at hitting the net with a shot. This can come from skill and positioning. Curtis Knight is going to hit the net more than Jordan Hall or Mark Steenhuis because he is at the side of the net more often than not. This is by no means a miracle stat, but adds more to the picture when analyzing players.

When is comes to teams, those on the lower end of the chart should work the ball to better areas of the floor to generate more goal opportunities.

No comments:

Post a Comment